Dan McCrum Retweeted
Thursday, June 30, 2016
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
This matrix of government bond yields is astounding. All the bonds in red have a negative nominal yield. These are indeed very interesting times.
And here's some related commentary from the credit rating agency Fitch:
"Investors' flight to safe assets following the UK's EU referendum on June 23 pushed the global total of sovereign debt with negative yields to $11.7 trillion as of June 27, up $1.3 trillion from the end-May total, according to new analysis by Fitch Ratings. Brexit-related concerns drove more long-dated bond yields negative, with particularly big shifts in German, French and Japanese yield curves during June. Worries over the global growth outlook, further fueled by Brexit, have continued to support demand for higher-quality sovereign paper in June. Widespread adoption of unconventional monetary policies, including large-scale bond-buying programs and negative deposit rates, have driven the large increases in negative-yielding debt seen this year. ... The biggest drivers of the total increase during June were seen in longer-dated bonds. For example, German 10-year bund yields swung into negative territory and sub-zero yields moved further out on the curve for Japan -- now out to 17 years. Also, in Switzerland, virtually all sovereign debt carried a negative yield on June 27."
From George Magnus:
"In the space of a week, a kind of revolution has kicked off in the UK. In the ensuing vacuum, we have no government to speak of, and no opposition. The non-party that won the referendum has not been willing or able to articulate a template for how it would like the UK to proceed, and taken its campaign promises and proposals off its website. The campaign uncorked strong feelings over immigration and now disturbing, if still sporadic, elements of xenophobia."
From Martin Wolf's FT column:
... The UK should avoid triggering Article 50: that would eliminate its leverage and would push it out of the EU within two years, probably with no further trade agreement. Any such stalemate cannot continue forever. But there could be benefits, for both sides, in avoiding too hasty and brutal an ending.
The story goes that a man condemned to death told his king: “I could teach your horse to sing, within a year.” The king replied: “Very well. But if the horse is not singing a year from now, you will be executed.” Upon the criminal’s return, his cellmate remonstrated: “You know you can’t teach that horse to sing.” He replied: “I have a year I didn’t have before. A lot of things can happen in a year. The king might die. The horse might die. I might die. “And, who knows? Maybe the horse will sing.”
I suggest we try that year or so.
Sunday, June 26, 2016
For the next week or so I will post interesting insights and observations around the UK's historic decision to leave the EU.
My initial reaction is not one of shock but frustration. Having the rug pulled out from under you is one thing, but managing to pull it out from under yourself, well that is something to behold, a truly bewildering achievement in recklessness.
When looking at the broader landscape in terms of net benefits to UK and EU citizens, I firmly believe the economic argument is in favour of remaining - few economists would disagree. Beyond the economics there was a strong case for unity on the social and political side of things, but it was in these domains where the debate got really heated, and it was in this heat that the facts got twisted.
It's interesting to note that immigration and sovereignty are both issues that have particular psychological characteristics which played very much to the 'Leave' camp's favour. Firstly, both issues generate an 'us against them' mentality. The world over, we tend to hold negative feelings against the 'other'. The 'other' may be a neighbouring country that we make jokes about, a group characterised by skin colour, or maybe a group tied together by a different faith, etc. So long as they have a marker to place them in a foreign group, they can be alienated and we can blame them for some of our ills. Consider the communists and the Chinese in previous times. The threat almost always coming from the outside in. In this debate we had two 'others' - the EU beaureaucrats and the immmigrants. Add to this the ability to put a face to the perceived problem and you're onto a winner. Faces win over statistics everytime. We see documentaries about illegal benefits cheats who come over from Romania, we feel threatened by hearing the immigrants language and their influence on our society, and we see how our neighbourhood is changing for the worse because of the 'other'. I'm not denying any valid truths behind these fears and views, but they do appear to be heavily distorted by a type of availability bias, which was easily manipulated by the leave camp. The positives are harder to bring to the foreground and so are overlooked or underweighted. Narrative and the personalised case carries outsized weight against the statistics. This is why a charity asking for donations to alleviate a famine will focus on the single case instead of the vast, faceless thousands. We connect to the story, not the statistics. Annoyingly the remain camp focused on the fear of leaving instead of focusing on the positive stories, which could have provided the required emotional counter punch to the half-truth claims of the leavers.
The other thing I noticed was that many in the leave camp were deliberately not interested in looking at net benefits but focused on one or two of the issues, and even then the focus was a narrow one. For example, if we take the immigration issue, it is clear that UK will never have full control over immigration unless we want to destroy the economy, simply because this will be a central negotiation point when it comes to agreeing our terms of trade with the EU. Not only will the EU will have the upper hand when it comes to negotiations but they won't make it easy for us as we have put the whole European project at risk. Many voters seemed to switch off when it came to the 'experts' and expert opinion, deliberately blinding themselves to valid arguments in order to retain an odd type of internal coherence. It's not that they denied the facts, but they chose not to pay heed to them. It's the opposite of paralysis by analysis. Pick your own issues and chose your own facts. Hearts ruled minds and rationalism paid the price. It kind of proves that we haven't come as long a way from the Dark Ages as we like to think. One of the 'Leave' camp's ignorance blind spots, for example, was the absence of any type of substantive answer to the question, 'What will happen if we leave?' It's kind of an important one.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Friday, June 24, 2016
Poor old newspapers didnt stand much of a chance when it came to the Brexit results. Even if they left their print runs to the very last minute, there wouldn't have been time enough to print a definitive story.
Thursday, June 23, 2016
In a couple of weeks I will be moving out of my current residence in Englefield Green. Here is a log of encounters with various animals over the past few months:
Rabbits - the above photo was taken 10 minutes ago. These rabbits pay no mind to other animals but are easily started by the sight of humans.
Green Parakeets - boy are these birds noisy
Deer - when we had a fence panel down, a couple of deer would come into the garden a few times a week. Apparently one deer still jumps over the fence for the occasional walk around.
Rat - A monster sized rat was spotted scurrying about the garden.
Squirrels - constantly scampering about the garden.
Duck with a string of ducklings - came in through the gap in the fence and took hours to find their way back out.
Mouse - blasted critter found its way into my food cupboard, clambered up some bananas, having a nibble along the way, and destroyed my muesli. For several days afterwards, I could hear the creature scurrying around in the cavity underneath the kitchen cupboards.
Hornets - A couple of these scary looking beasts found their way in to the house
Honeybees - Over a couple of days, loads of honey bees were crawling out through the fireplace in my bedroom and buzzing about the place. I was pretty sure they'd made a home in the chimney but within two days there was no sight nor sound of them.
Red Kites - These majestic scavengers are increasingly common in these parts.
Fox - never spotted but they made a loud howling/barking noise at night. Also, I left a pair of muddy trainers in the porchway and they broke in and ran off with them!
Cat - my companion when I'm enjoying a good book. He has his own chair:
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
I recently re-read The Old Man and the Sea, by Hemingway. It is as enchanting as ever and there are many quotes to note for posterity. I'm also working my way through Samuel Pepys Diary (1659 to 1669). I'll comment on the diary in detail once I've finished, although this will be some months away as it comprises 778 pages of tightly printed text...for now though, it is one of the finest and most fascinating books that I have ever read.
If you like Woody Allen, To Rome With Love ticks all the boxes. It is light and airy and has the high quality dialogue that fans will have come to expect. The movie is worth watching for the Robert Benigi scenes alone; in Benigi's sub-story, Allen provides genius commentary on the fleeting and fickle nature of celebrity, and how the media latches on and obsesses about every little detail of the celebrity's life.
Michelangelo: He sings for pleasure, not money.
Jerry: Well, there's a great deal of pleasure in money. You know, you... it's green and crinkly. You can fondle the bills.
Jack: With age comes wisdom.
John: With age comes exhaustion.
John: John: And you buy into her bullshit because she seems to know all the right things to say. She knows names, she knows buzzwords, she knows certain cultural phrases that imply that she knows more than she does.
Jack: It's sort of charming that she's a con artist.
John: Yes. She does have a certain something, which trumps logic. So go ahead, walk into the propeller.
Saturday, June 11, 2016
God of Noodles is my first attempt at K-Drama (i.e. a Korean drama series) and it is very, very good, with an excellent turn by the straight-faced villainous Kim Gil-Do, played to a tee by Cho Jae-Hyun. Give it a try.When it comes to all things revenge, nobody does it better than the South Koreans.
In the Woody Allen movie 'Irrational Man', Joaquin Phoenix plays Abe Lucas, a disillusioned philosophy professor who is stuck in the standard 'everything all meaningless' existential crisis - this is a flaw in the movie as a philosophy professor surely would have thought through all these obstacles in his early years of study, and yet the flaw is necessary to the plot so we'll have to forgive it. The overall story, which is filled with a pot-pourri of existential teachings, is actually quite memorable and exemplary, the insight being how an individual can suddenly find not only meaning in an irrational act, but that the new meaning can enliven and infuse the person with a new positive life force, even though the end may a destructive one.
Prof. Abe Lucas: "One day a person has a more as of complicated and unsolvable problems then in the batting of an eye, dark clouds part and you can enjoy a decent life again. It's just astounding. I'm Abe Lucas. I've had many experiences and now a unique one. This was the meaningful act I was searching for."
Prof. Abe Lucas: "Kant said human reason is troubled by questions that it cannot dismiss, but also cannot answer."
Prof. Abe Lucas: "It's very scary when you run out of distractions."
Prof. Abe Lucas: ... I'm blocked, I can't write.
Prof. Abe Lucas: I can't write cause I can't breathe.
Rita: What would get you breathing again?
Prof. Abe Lucas: The will to breathe, inspiration
Friday, June 10, 2016
Friday, June 03, 2016
Thursday, June 02, 2016
Elon Musk has made this point before, but it sure is a good one.