Saturday, January 30, 2016

Economics forecasters: pay little no mind to the prognosticators

If this is correct, it's a pretty damning statistic:

"The Economist had a remarkable statistic. The IMF makes forecasts for every country every April. There have been 220 instances across several decades and some number of countries where growth was positive in year T and negative in year T+1. Of those 220 instances, the IMF predicted it in April in precisely zero of those 220 instances."

(From economist Lawrence Summers, via Marginal Revolution).
The Economist had a remarkable statistic. The IMF makes forecasts for every country every April. There have been 220 instances across several decades and some number of countries where growth was positive in year T and negative in year T+1. Of those 220 instances, the IMF predicted it in April in precisely zero of those 220 instances. So the fact that there’s a sense of complacency and relative comfort should give very little comfort. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/page/2#sthash.dpCjbaxv.dpuf
The Economist had a remarkable statistic. The IMF makes forecasts for every country every April. There have been 220 instances across several decades and some number of countries where growth was positive in year T and negative in year T+1. Of those 220 instances, the IMF predicted it in April in precisely zero of those 220 instances. So the fact that there’s a sense of complacency and relative comfort should give very little comfort. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/page/2#sthash.dpCjbaxv.dpuf

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