A quote to note

"... the result of any single decision doesn’t necessarily tell us whether it was a good decision or not. In a probabilistic world, some smart gambles are going to fail, and some dumb ones are going to succeed. So post hoc analysis will often mislead us. You see this all the time in sports, where broadcasters are fond of proclaiming the wisdom or foolishness of a manager’s choice based entirely on whether or not it worked, rather than on the basis of whether or not it was the smart play according to the percentages. What we want policymakers to do is to make those decisions that maximize the chance of a good outcome while minimizing the chances of bad ones."

(Source: James Surowiecki, The Balance Sheet)