Friday, April 22, 2016

30 year Japanese government bond yield


Investors are currently willing to lend to the Japanese government across all time horizons for almost no return. This has been the case for some time for short-term funds (i.e. the front end of the yield curve) but we are now seeing close to zero yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with a 30-year maturity. There will be a rationale behind this but that doesn't stop it being a pretty worrying sign that things are seriously amiss in the capital markets.


(chart via FT's twitter)

Visitors in the garden



Thursday, April 14, 2016

Nerve bypass - controlling movement of a completely paralysed limb

This is very cool.


BMJ study: 'Dietary fats: a new look at old data challenges established wisdom'

The BMJ recently published an interesting paper that digs up some previously unpublished data on an old study, and questions whether polyunsaturated fat provides any protection against heart disease over saturated fat. The change in oil did have a noticeable change on cholesterol levels but this didn't translate to changes in heart health. 

Here are some exceprts from the editorial: 

"It is widely accepted that diets rich in polyunsaturated fats protect against heart disease...This new study re-examines recovered data from a double blind randomised controlled trial that took place 45 years ago. The Minnesota Coronary Experiment (MCE) followed 9423 participants from state mental hospitals and a nursing home for 4.5 years. The trial tested whether replacement of saturated fat with vegetable oil rich in linoleic acid (an omega-6 polyunsaturated fat) reduces the risk of coronary heart disease and death through a reduction in serum cholesterol concentration. 

As expected, the diet enriched with linoleic acid lowered serum cholesterol concentration. But it did not reduce mortality: in fact participants in the intervention group had a higher mortality than controls. The pooled results of the MCE and four similar trials failed to find any reduction in mortality from coronary heart disease."
'These unexpected results proved difficult to stomach for researchers at the time. The trial ended in 1973, but it took until 1989 for the results to be published.' 

'While we wait for further clarification, we should continue to eat (and to advise others to eat) more fish, fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. We should avoid salt, sugar, industrial trans fats, and avoid over eating.'

Here is the conclusion of the study:
 
Available evidence from randomized controlled trials shows that replacement of saturated fat in the diet with linoleic acid effectively lowers serum cholesterol but does not support the hypothesis that this translates to a lower risk of death from coronary heart disease or all causes. Findings from the Minnesota Coronary Experiment add to growing evidence that incomplete publication has contributed to overestimation of the benefits of replacing saturated fat with vegetable oils rich in linoleic acid.

Ideas at the House: Michael Mosley at the Sydney Opera House

If you are even remotely interested in nutrition and health, the first forty odd minutes of this presentation will be worth your time.


Netflix: Dreamland

Netflix has a neat Australian office comedy called 'Dreamland' tucked away in its catalogue. It pretty much nails the absurdities of the modern workplace.

One of my favourite clips (the first half of the video below) is of an employee who is being performance reviewed. He can't hold himself back from from spewing out meaningless jargon-laden sentences, some of which I plan to sneak in to my next appraisal. As a self assessment the employee believes he is 'delivering desired performance outcomes on a consistent basis'. He is 'task orientated', which means he is oriented .... to task. During his short time in the organization, he has 'contributed to the functionality and efficiency of the workplace' and has best of all is his key strength which is his  'general tendency to identify, strategise and solve problems as they arise.'




Sunday, March 20, 2016

Hmph

... it's been a while since I posted anything. A case of curator's block perhaps.

Monday, February 15, 2016

DNA


Here are some notes about DNA, taken from a series of introductory videos produced by 23andMe and the Khan Academy.
  • The human body is made up of about 50 trillion cells. Almost every cell contains a nucleus which holds 99.9% of our genes (cell mitochondria store a few more genes).
  • The coiled DNA in a nucleus is about 6 foot long.
  • All told, we have around 20,000 genes. Together, these form our DNA.
  • DNA comprises sugar, phosphate and four bases (adenine, thymine, cytosine and guanine).
  • The bases spell out the genetic code. The numbering and ordering determines the organism and its characteristics.
  • Most genes are recipes for making specific proteins. They tell a cell how to function (e.g. whether to become a hair follicle, a brain cell or a heart cell). 
  • Gene regulators turn different genes on and off to control cell functions. 
  • The long pieces of DNA containing your genes are organised into pieces called chromosomes. Humans have two sets of 23 chromosomes. 
  • The entire set of chromosomes is call the genome. The genome comprises around 3 billion base pairs. It would take a person over 9 years to read these out without stopping.
  • When a new cell is made, a single base pair may get added, substituted or left out. These variations (single-nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNPS, also knowns as 'snips') are what us make us different from one another. 
  • Most variations produce unobservable differences, but some lead to observable changes in traits (e.g. curly hair) or to the development of various conditions. As these differences are passed on to future generations, looking at differences and similarities in genomes can tell you how closely two people are related.
  • You can get your whole genome sequenced for around $1,000. 23andMe conducts genotyping analysis, looking at around 600,000 variations of base pairs (these are called SNPs or 'snips', the locations where variations are known to occur). 23andMe focuses on those snips, which have well studied contributions to particular traits.
  • We share 99.5% of our DNA with other humans.
  • Ancestry analysis is easier using the Y chromosome for the male line (passed down from father to son) or mitochondrial DNA from the female line, as both of these sets of DNA are more likely to have stayed intact across many generations.This analysis assigns a haplogroup to the maternal and paternal lineage, relating to a particular point and place in history when a specific mutation arose and has been passed along in future generations.
  • Phenotypes = observable traits (e.g. weight, height, etc) that result from the interaction between you and your environment. Some traits are more determined by the environment than others.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

A myopia epidemic - an excellent article from Nature


Nature reports on the rise of myopia (short-sightedness). The quoted statistics are astounding:
East Asia has been gripped by an unprecedented rise in myopia, also known as short-sightedness. Sixty years ago, 10–20% of the Chinese population was short-sighted. Today, up to 90% of teenagers and young adults are. In Seoul, a whopping 96.5% of 19-year-old men are short-sighted.

...Other parts of the world have also seen a dramatic increase in the condition, which now affects around half of young adults in the United States and Europe — double the prevalence of half a century ago. 
The thinking is that it isn't book work and staring at ipads that causes myopia but time spent indoors. The correlation may be due to exposure to bright day light, which is thought to have protective benefits for the yes, or it could be some other factor that acts as a preventative. For now, it's another reason to spend some time outdoors.
In 2009, Regan Ashby, Arne Ohlendorf and Frank Schaeffel from the University of Tübingen's Institute for Ophthalmic Research in Germany showed that high illumination levels — comparable to those encountered outside — slowed the development of experimentally induced myopia in chicks by about 60% compared with normal indoor lighting conditions. Researchers elsewhere have found similar protective effects in tree shrews and rhesus monkeys.
Based on epidemiological studies, Ian Morgan, a myopia researcher at the Australian National University in Canberra, estimates that children need to spend around three hours per day under light levels of at least 10,000 lux to be protected against myopia. This is about the level experienced by someone under a shady tree, wearing sunglasses, on a bright summer day. (An overcast day can provide less than 10,000 lux and a well-lit office or classroom is usually no more than 500 lux.) Three or more hours of daily outdoor time is already the norm for children in Morgan's native Australia, where only around 30% of 17-year-olds are myopic. But in many parts of the world — including the United States, Europe and East Asia — children are often outside for only one or two hours.
...In some places, children cannot get any more outdoor light: there are too few hours of daylight, the sun is too fierce, or the cold too intense. Animal research10 has suggested that powerful indoor lights could do the trick instead: light boxes currently sold to treat seasonal affective disorder, for example, can deliver up to 10,000 lux illumination, but their effects on myopia have not been tested extensively in humans.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

23andme - a review

Just before Christmas I sent a vial of my saliva to a company called 23andMe, the world's largest personal genetics company. 23andMe extracts and analyses the DNA to provide a raft of detailed information covering aspects of ancestry and health. The ancestry information is pretty interesting but it's the health information that has made the exercise worth the £125 fee, several times over. The health info includes reports on inherited conditions, traits, likely drug responses and genetic risk factors.

Here's a short video of how 23andMe processes the DNA. In a nutshell, the saliva only holds 0.5% DNA, so they amplify it, embed it into a special chip, and analyse it.



Here's my ancestry breakdown at the highest certainty level of 90%:

Things get more interesting when the strictness is reduce. Here's my ancestry breakdown at the lowest certainty level of greater than 51%:
Here's some information on traits:

And here's the neanderthal DNA report. Finally, I'm above average in something!

Note, this is just small sampling of the information provided.

Monday, February 01, 2016

Saturday, January 30, 2016

McSweeneys nihilistic security questions


Every now and then McSweeney's publishes a gem. This is one of their most hit up pieces from last year.

Nihilistic Password Security Questions
BY SOHEIL REZAYAZDI

What is the name of your least favorite child?

In what year did you abandon your dreams?

What is the maiden name of your father’s mistress?

At what age did your childhood pet run away?

What was the name of your favorite unpaid internship?

In what city did you first experience ennui?

What is your ex-wife’s newest last name?

What sports team do you fetishize to avoid meaningful discussion with others?

What is the name of your favorite canceled TV show?

What was the middle name of your first rebound?

On what street did you lose your childlike sense of wonder?

When did you stop trying?

Economics forecasters: pay little no mind to the prognosticators

If this is correct, it's a pretty damning statistic:

"The Economist had a remarkable statistic. The IMF makes forecasts for every country every April. There have been 220 instances across several decades and some number of countries where growth was positive in year T and negative in year T+1. Of those 220 instances, the IMF predicted it in April in precisely zero of those 220 instances."

(From economist Lawrence Summers, via Marginal Revolution).
The Economist had a remarkable statistic. The IMF makes forecasts for every country every April. There have been 220 instances across several decades and some number of countries where growth was positive in year T and negative in year T+1. Of those 220 instances, the IMF predicted it in April in precisely zero of those 220 instances. So the fact that there’s a sense of complacency and relative comfort should give very little comfort. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/page/2#sthash.dpCjbaxv.dpuf
The Economist had a remarkable statistic. The IMF makes forecasts for every country every April. There have been 220 instances across several decades and some number of countries where growth was positive in year T and negative in year T+1. Of those 220 instances, the IMF predicted it in April in precisely zero of those 220 instances. So the fact that there’s a sense of complacency and relative comfort should give very little comfort. - See more at: http://marginalrevolution.com/page/2#sthash.dpCjbaxv.dpuf

Friday, January 29, 2016

Book: Hakagure by Yamamoto Tsunemoto


In the second season of True Detective, I spotted a copy of the Hagakure in one of the detective's homes. This book belongs to the family of texts that include The Book of Five Rings and the Art of War. They are Eastern classics that provide sage doses of wisdom in relation to martial arts and warfare. As a typical Westerner, I'll readily admit that my understanding of practices from the ancient East is entertainingly informed but seriously distorted by Western cultural products including computer games such as Double Dragon and Shinobi, the allure of throwing stars and ninja turtles, The Karate Kid, and more recently films along the likes of The Last Samurai and 47 Ronin. Simply put, ninjas and samurai's are cool, they have a cool mythical allure and practice seriously cool levels of self-discipline and mastery.

Viewing such things from this romanticised lens, I was quite jarred when I started reading a version of the Hagakure. In the context of the modern day, there is much to disprove of: the individual is a slave to custom, personal freedom is limited and is not even sought after, and the value of life is very low. Indeed, the glory of life is in the death. Some paragraphs of the Hagakure are very harsh and strict, sometimes ambiguous and often contradictory. And there's also the seriously  ghastly e.g. 'If you cut a face lengthwise, urinate on it, and trample on it with straw sandals, it is said that the skin will come off. This was heard by the priest Gyojaku when he was in Kyoto. It is information to be treasured.' Quite.

After all that, there is a lot of good stuff as well, some of which is collected further down in the post.

Various notes and quotes from the book and from around it.


On dying:



Alexander Bennet introduction : Attachment to life hindered a warrior during a catastrophe, and so it was deemed virtuous to train one's mind and spirit to choose death with firm resolve if the situation called for 'decisive action.'








Me: Death about death of the self. Can we turn this into death of the non-useful? ie apply it to living up to our own ideals, but first we must have the ideals.

Shakespeare: '“A coward dies a thousand times before his death, but the valiant taste of death but once. It seems to me most strange that men should fear, seeing that death, a necessary end, will come when it will come.”

Content
The book records Tsunetomo's views on bushido, the warrior code of the samurai. Hagakure is sometimes said to assert that bushido is really the "Way of Dying" or living as though one was already dead, and that a samurai must be willing to die at any moment in order to be true to his lord. His saying "the way of the warrior is death" was a summation of the willingness to sacrifice that bushido codified.

Historical context
After his master died, Tsunetomo himself was forbidden to perform junshi, a retainer's ritual suicide, by an edict of the Tokugawa Shogunate combined with his master's disapproval of the tradition. Hagakure may have been written partially in an effort to outline the role of the samurai in a more peaceful society. Several sections refer to the "old days", and imply a dangerous weakening of the samurai class since that time.

The Hagakure was written approximately one hundred years after the start of the Tokugawa era, a time of relative peace. With no major campaigns to fight, the samurai were transforming from a warrior to an administrative class. His work represents one approach to the problem of maintaining military preparedness and a proper military mindset in a time when neither has much practical application.

---

 Does Hagakure represent a 'mystical beauty intrinsic to the Japanese aesthetic experience', or is it a 'text that epitomizes all that is abhorrent in terms of mindless sacrifice, as well as a loathsome depreciation of the value of life and blind obedience to authority'? Invented tradition? A window into the complex ethics of the Tokugawa world? Or simply the 'seditious ramblings of a disgruntled curmudgeon'?
A careful reading of Hagakure will reveal elements of all of these.

Bennett states that the book is vastly misunderstood both inside and outside Japan, and perhaps that is why Jocho encouraged Tsuramoto to burn it upon completion (to prevent it from being read by those who could never understand the spirit in which it was written).

Bennett shows how Jocho was bitter at the "disintegration of warrior norms over previous decades", "anti-Shogunate sentiment", had a nostalgic longing for the previous regimes and decried how young samurai "talk of money, about profit and loss, their household financial problems, taste in fashion, and idle chatter of sex". At one point in the book, Jocho flatly states that there are "no good men"

...apparent contradictions within the book, including some of its most famous passages. Should a vassal rush headlong into danger, or should he seek a more peaceful alternative? Does one persistently correct the Lord and let him know when he is wrong, or does one carry out the letter of his commands unquestioningly? You should always follow out the Lord's commands, except when you don't. While mastering an art is detrimental to the way of the samurai, when can its study actually be beneficial? There are passages that seem to exhort the virtues of each.

Even the oft-quoted 'The Way of the Samurai is found in death' takes on a new meaning when read in its proper context. Boiled down to its core, it says to simply do your best in everything and approach every situation fearlessly as if it is your last day on earth-to not hold back out of a fear of dying or failing. It's not necessarily about rushing head-on alone into a nest

Quotes

Although the Hagakure was written centuries ago for a breed of warriors that no longer exist, the philosophies and wisdom within are still practical, even in our modern times.

Although it stands to reason that a samurai should be mindful of the Way of the Samurai, it would seem that we are all negligent. Consequently, if someone were to ask, "What is the true meaning of the Way of the Samurai?" the person who would be able to answer promptly is rare. This is because it has not been established in one's mind beforehand. From this, one's unmindfulness of the Way can be known.
in large part we make our logic according to what we like.

To give a person one's opinion and correct his faults is an important thing. It is compassionate and comes first in matters of service. But the way of doing this is extremely difficult. To discover the good and bad points of a person is an easy thing, and to give an opinion concerning them is easy, too. For the most part, people think that they are being kind by saying the things that others find distasteful or difficult to say. But if it is not received well, they think that there is nothing more to be done. This is completely worthless. It is the same as bringing shame to a person by slandering him. It is nothing more than getting it off one's chest.

To give a person an opinion one must first judge well whether that person is of the disposition to receive it or not.

Throughout your life advance daily, becoming more skillful than yesterday, more skillful than today. This is never-ending.

A man who bas never once erred is dangerous."...a character is quoted as saying of a candidate being considered for promotion.

A real man does not think of victory or defeat. He plunges recklessly towards an irrational death. By doing this, you will awaken from your dreams.

It is not good to settle into a set of opinions. It is a mistake to put forth effort and obtain some understanding and then stop at that.

How should a person respond when he is asked, "As a human being, what is essential in terms of purpose and discipline?" First, let us say, "It is to become of the mind that is right now pure and lacking complications."

Every morning, the samurai of fifty or sixty years ago would bathe, shave their foreheads, put lotion in their hair, cut their fingernails and toenails rubbing them with pumice and then with wood sorrel, and without fail pay attention to their personal appearance . It goes without saying that their armor in general was kept free from rust, that it was dusted, shined, and arranged.

Although it seems that taking special care of one's appearance is similar to showiness, it is nothing akin to elegance.

If one perceives a person's good points, he will have a model teacher for anything.

In general, a person who is versatile in many things is considered to be vulgar and to have only a broad knowledge of matters of importance.

There is something to be learned from a rainstorm. When meeting with a sudden shower, you try not to pet wet and run quickly along the road. But doing such things as passing under the eaves of houses, you still get wet. When you are resolved from the beginning, you will not be perplexed, though you still get the same soaking. This understanding extends to everything.

the fact that something bad always happens in the world when strange phenomena occur is due to people seeing something like fluttering clouds and thinking that something is going to happen. The mystery is created in their minds,

When meeting calamities or difficult situations, it is not enough to simply say that one is not at all flustered. When meeting difficult situations, one should dash forward bravely and with joy. It is the crossing of a single barrier and is like the saying, "The more the water, the higher the boat."

Upon reaching the age of forty, both wise and foolish have gone through an appropriate amount of experience and will no longer be perplexed .

Whatever you do should be done for the sake of your master and parents, the people in general, and for posterity. This is great compassion. The wisdom and courage that come from compassion are real wisdom and courage. When one punishes or strives with the heart of compassion, what he does will be limitless in strength and correctness. Doing something for one's own sake is shallow and mean and turns into evil. I understood the matters of wisdom and courage some time ago. I am just now beginning to understand the matter of compassion.

It is said that Tokunaga Kichizaemon repeatedly complained, "I've grown so old that now, even if there were to be a battle, I wouldn't be able to do anything. Still, I would like to die by galloping into the midst of the enemy and being struck down and killed. It would be a shame to do nothing more than to die in one's bed."

In approaching for the attack he does not forget to wait for the right moment. In waiting for the right moment he never forgets the attack.

The saying that "All abilities come from one mind" ...is in fact a matter of being unattached to life and death. With such non-attachment one can accomplish any feat.

These are teachings of Yamamoto Jin'emon:

· Single mindedness is all-powerful.
· Tether even a roasted chicken.
· A man exists for a generation, but his name lasts to the end of time.

There is weakness in perfect clarity.

Meditation on inevitable death should be performed daily. Every day when one's body and mind are at peace, one should meditate upon being ripped apart by arrows, rifles, spears and swords, being carried away by surging waves, being thrown into the midst of a great fire, being struck by lightning, being shaken to death by a great earthquake, falling from thousand-foot cliffs, dying of disease or committing seppuku at the death of one's master. And every day without fail one should consider himself as dead.

When one departs for the front, he should carry rice in a bag. His underwear should be made from the skin of a badger. This way he will not have lice. In a long campaign, lice are troublesome.

In all matters of discipline, one will be useless unless he has great pride. Unless one is determined to move the clan by himself, all his discipline will come to naught. Although, like a tea kettle, it is easy for one's enthusiasm to cool, there is a way to keep this from happening. My own vows are the following:

· Never to be outdone in the Way of the Samurai.
· To be of good use to the master.
· To be filial to my parents.
· To manifest great compassion, and to act for the sake of Man.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Book: The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver




"The Signal and Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction" is a  decent book about probabilistic thinking. There are quite a few takeaways for risk-takers and traders and the book did trigger quite a few thoughts, including:

  • Be alert to deadly correlation changes in extreme situations (e.g. asset classes moving together, waves of defaults creating domino effect). 
  • Traders are often alert to the risk of small losses of the type seen in a typical day, death is more likely on the rare extreme day when the monsters emerge from the darkness. 
  • Risk taking affects the mind, which affects subsequent decisions i.e. you aren't the same person once you have taken the risk, especially if it is a big risk. The act affects the agent.
  • Noise can be easily mistaken for signal.
  • Garbage in: garbage out, and there's plenty of garbage.
  • Trading and other speculations: Do the numbers after the fact disprove the hypothesis, does failure prove randomness wins and the edge is a delusion? Poor risk management can easily mask the findings, making it difficult to know if the trader ever had an edge. 
  • Risk management: the concern is not the forecast but the risk of the glaring omission or the reckless battle dominated by emotion (examples to fall back on?).
  • One man's signal is another man's noise: e.g intraday trader versus long term. A small technical pattern versus a policy shift. A day of rain in the summer.
***

Quotes

- The Fuskushima nuclear reactor had been designed to handle a magnitude 8.6 earthquake, in part because some seismologists concluded that anything larger was impossible. Then came Japan's horrible 9.1 magnitude earthquake in March 2011.

- Human beings do not have very many natural defenses. We are not all that fast, and we are not all that strong. We do not have claws or fangs or body armour. We cannot spit venom. And we cannot fly. Instead, we survive by means of our wits. Our minds are quick. We are wired to detect patterns and respond to opportunities and threats without much hesitation.

- We love to predict things - and we aren't very good at it.

- The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

- We ignore the risks that are hardest to measure, even when they pose the greatest threats to our well-being.

- Risk, as first articulated by the economist Frank H. Knight in 1921 is something that you can put a price on.
Uncertainty, on the other hand, is risk that is hard to measure. You might have some vague awareness of the demons lurking out there. You might evem be acutely concerned about them. But you have no real idea how many of them there are or when they might strike.

- 'If you're in a market and someone's trying to sell you something which you don't understand ... you should think that they are trying to sell you a lemon.' - George Akerlof speaking to the author.

- When there is an excess of greed in the system, there is a bubble. Where there is an excess of fear, there is a panic.

- The most basic tenet of chaos theory is that a small change in initial conditions - a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil - can produce large and unexpected divergences in outcomes - a tornado in Texas. This does not mean that the behaviour of the system is random, as the term "chaos" might imply. ...It just means that certain types of systems are very hard to predict.

- The terms 'prediction' and 'forecast' are employed differently in different fields; in some cases, they are interchangeable, but other disciplines differentiate them. No field is more sensitive to the distinction than seismology. If you're speaking with a seismologist:
A prediction is a definite and specific statement about when and where an earthquake will strike: a major earthquake will hit Tokyo, Japan, on June 28.
Whereas a forecast is a probabilistic statement, usually over a longer scale: there is a 60 percent chance of an earthquake in Southern California over the next thirty years.
The USGS's official position is that earthquakes cannot be predicted. They can, however, be predicted.

- 'Efficient market hypothesis has two components', Thaler told me over lunch. ...'One I call the No Free Lunch component, which is that you can't beat the market. Eugene Fama and I mostly agree about this component. The part he doesn't like to talk about is the Price is Right component.'

- (Thomas Schelling) 'There is a tendency to mistake the unfamiliar for the improbable.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Book: The Meaning of Life by Terry Eagleton



I couldn't connect with this dense little book but it did spawn quite a few thoughts which I've scribbled below. Apologies in advance - I expect the notes may not make much sense to other readers.

** 1/2

Scribblings

 - Life is a series of forward movements, we are always going from a point A to a point B (as David Bowie said, we are in a constant state of arrival and departure). Do these journeys require an underlying sense of meaning, a provider of the 'because' behind the action. Conversely, can we/do we derive the meaning after the event. I suspect life is a combination of the two, which we weave into a coherent narrative.
- Do we overweight meanings to some components of meaning and underweight others i.e. even if meaning is a purely subjective notion, do some external factors hold too much deterministic sway. What about the heavy anchor of the status quo bias i.e. it is too psychologically taxing to question evey motive.
- How does meaning change over time, as we age? 
- Existential questioning along these lines can bring a person close to the edge of the nihilistic abyss.
- Understanding the self: realisation that we are part of a broad system and our autonomy is limited or at least affected by a network of factors: society, family, law, friends, fashions, memes, supernatural beliefs and religion, and of course there is nature (genes and epigenetics, free will, the mind-body connection).
- Why do we seek to be happy? The desire appears to be part of our nature but is perhaps being overly exploited through media as the be all and end all, as something to which we all have a right to. Consider other drivers such as power, love, autonomy, achievement, recognition, freedom, truth, reason, honesty, altruism, etc. Also, think more broadly, in terms of life satisfaction, well-being, purpose, etc.
- For most people, relationships are key. But it shouldn't be assumed to be true for all (e.g, solitary hermits).
- On generalistion: At the population level, man is a social creature who seeks happiness and takes pleasure in good or virtuous deeds. At the level of the individual however, things get more disparate; some seek gains at the expense of others, some take pleasure in harm, some are selfless with little regard for their own health, etc. It is a question of dispersions of meanings. How many people are close to the central tendency and how many are outliers with very different meanings of life?
- Should the emphasis be more about avoiding the negative (e.g. pain and suffering) and less on the positive. Perhaps the latter is best achieved indirectly.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

David Bowie quote



Comic: Dilberts

Weekend funnies, courtesy of Dilbert.





Book: Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans




"He who knows best, best knows how little he knows." - Thomas Jefferson

Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans is all about thinking about risk and uncertainty in a coherent manner. I didn't find the book to be a 'game changer' but it is packed with lots of great examples and quotes, and it is also written in a clear style that is very easy to read. Had I not already read a fair few books on risk and human biases, I'm pretty sure Risk Intelligence would have been a eye-opener.

***1/2

Quotes

- Experts often think they know more than they do.

- Almost everyone overestimates how long the both good and bad feelings will last. ...  most people are reasonably happy most of the time, and most events do little to change that for long. ...Yet most people persist in thinking that powerful events must have long-lasting emotional consequences.

- "However sure you are that you can easily win,....there would not be a war if the other man did not also think he had a chance" - Winston Churchill.

- "The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion...draws all things else to support and agree with it." - Francis Bacon

- "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally" - J.M. Keynes.

- As one expert gambler, the Irish race bettor J.P. McManus, told me, a nice who has lost all his bets at the racetrack in the morning may be so desperate to back a winner before going home that he stakes everything on a horse he has never heard of in the last race of the day. J.P., on the other hand, could always take it or leave it. His motto was "There's always another race."

- "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Darwin

- "If you want to succeed, double your failure rate" - Thomas J.Watson, founder of IBM

Notes to self, made while reading


- Risk Intelligence (RI) concerns judgement based on rational calculation and well calibrated intuitive feelings, as opposed to being misinformed by biases (e.g. overconfidence, availability heuristic, wishful thinking, confirmation bias, etc). RI enables the decision maker to feel comfortable and make decisions when faced with uncertainty...

- CSI effect: the jury expects more proof than the forensic evidence can deliver.  Even DNA and fingerprints are about probabilities.

- Airport security: there is a difference between feeling safe and being safe. How much is theatre?

- Some hazards evoke a stronger emotional response than others. Think about terrorism, global warming, homicide, road accidents. Emotion affects risk appetite, and leads to things like the 1% doctrine. 

- Wishful thinking: seeing the world as you think it should be as opposed to how it is.


- RI is easily distorted by the madness of crowds, the influence of the herd.

- Without underplaying the value the basic statistical knowledge, RI doesn't necessarily mean a person has a very strong capability for probability theory. A lot can be intuitive. Some games requires probability theory e.g. casinos, but for many aspects of life you don't need to know, and often can't know, the odds of events.

- Be aware when probabilities are expressions of certain events (e.g. coin toss), or are subjective expressions (e.g. assigning a probability to a business failing).

- A frequent characteristic of successful gamblers: "They all knew their strengths and weaknesses very well and were brutally honest with themselves. Many of them kept accurate and detailed records of their earnings and losses, and they reviewed their strategies regularly to learn from their mistakes."